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Post by BackinBlack on Oct 8, 2015 14:14:31 GMT -5
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Post by BackinBlack on Jan 30, 2018 11:14:36 GMT -5
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Post by Webber3000 on Feb 5, 2018 1:38:13 GMT -5
Man, that quote at the beginning gives me some Spider-Man (1) flashbacks.
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Post by mr. excellent on Jul 21, 2018 2:01:37 GMT -5
"Let me take you on a roller coaster..."
Or something like that, go the lyrics to the song that played in one of the more prominent Spider-man (2002) trailers. I'm saying this in reference to what you posted directly above me Webber... I should've just quoted you, lol. Anyway
Today I saw Ant Man and the Wasp for my 3rd (and final) time in theaters. I have to say, while the movie is doing alright at the box office considering it's staggered release, I believe it could be doing better. The movie came out in a time where there was a lot of competition. I guess that's the summer season, but every audience I've seen the movie with has loved it. This movie generates lots of laughs, a little bit of wonder, and an overall fun experience with every crowd I've been in. I actually took my cross country team to check it out as a sort of team building outing today. None of them are comic book movie enthusiasts really, and like many other boys their age are obsessed with Fortnite. That said, they enjoyed the heck out of the film. They all said they'd see it again, and it got me thinking. Marvel has a wonderfully simple (as in stand alone mostly), yet fun movie that's out now, and only a fraction of their typical audience is seeing it.
My belief is this: this movie should be able to make a decent amount of money, maybe quietly for an MCU property, for another couple weeks. However, if Disney were to pull the movie from theaters (in say 2 or 3 weeks) in territories where it has been playing for for a while, but then they were to rerelease the film in October - November, I think it could be worth their while. Here in the US alone, I bet it could make another $70 million in an October - November time frame. At this point, I think the kids have seen a lot of movies and the box office is cooling off. You could see a short spike with Mission Impossible, but the younger kids that this movie is geared toward have already been satiated multiple times over. You had Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo, Jurassic World, and Incredibles 2 especially. Give the kids a couple months back in school, and they're going to need some counter programming to the horror fare that'll be out at that time. Again, every audience I've seen this movie with has enjoyed every bit of it. It's simple, stupid fun, and it goes by quickly. Marvel was part of closing out 2016 and 2017 the last 2 years with films that didn't disappoint. This film doesn't seem to be disappointing, I think they can fill their own "void" with a limited re-release. Just some thoughts.
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Post by mr. excellent on Aug 5, 2018 16:12:07 GMT -5
It has been a few weeks since that last post, and I feel mostly the same way. Making an additional 70 million was too high, but I do think that they stood to make a lot of money by pulling the film after its first 3 weeks. I will say that November is a busy month, it was silly of me to suggest a November time frame for rerelease. However, looking at mid to late September and the month of October (a 6 week frame), I think that would've been a good time to put it out there again. Thing is, there's a lot of movies making money right now. All I'm saying is that Ant Man and the Wasp got great reactions. It wasn't just in my home town. The movie had really good word of mouth and pre-release buzz. It's for that reason that I think it could've reached higher numbers, maybe 50 million on rerelease world wide, in a time frame with less competition, and not including the places it has yet to debut in. It's impossible to say, and something we'll never know because the movie's release was so staggered to begin with.
As it stands now, they did not pull the movie and it has continued to steadily pull in money. Off an estimated budget of $162 million, the film has made an estimated $195.5 (rounding up) million dollars in the US, and an additional $230.8 million from foreign markets, which brings its current total to $426.2 million dollars. I don't know how true this is, but I've heard that when a studio doubles its production budget in box office earnings, then it has reached the "break even" point at that time. Now, $462.2 million is $102 million over double its production budget. So, while the numbers are low in terms of MCU films, that's still a big profit, right? Maybe not a "let's write the sequel right now!" profit, but definitely a "these characters are going to show up again, somewhere" type of profit. To be honest, I do think Marvel has a sequel planned but will wait a long time to announce it in part due to their news blackout because of Infinity War, and also because of the money talk stuff (more on that below).
It's important to note that the movie just released in the UK on August 2nd. When it will release in China is still unknown, but the first Ant Man had an opening weekend of $42 million in China, and a total lifetime gross of $105 million. I believe there are a couple other major territories the movie needs to release in as well, so I can see this movie finishing between $550 and $600 million dollars when all is said and done. Anything in that range is something to be proud of when it happens... eventually. It'll take a while, but I really do think it'll get very close to the $600 million mark, which would give me a lot of confidence in the studio producing more solo adventures with these characters. I'd be excited to see Marvel actually do something with the Quantum Realm. I could definitely envision a big new direction for this franchise. Something as boldly different as Winter Soldier was to The First Avenger, or Ragnarok was to Thor and Thor: The Dark World. So, let's get on it UK, China and the rest of the world!
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Post by mr. excellent on Aug 5, 2018 21:02:58 GMT -5
So I want to make a minor amendment to my first paragraph in that most recent post above. When I said Ant Man and the Wasp could make another 50 million upon rerelease in a time frame with less competition, I meant that it could do that in the U.S. alone. World Wide it would definitely do more, otherwise it wouldn't be worth it and my whole point goes out the window. As it stands, the last two weeks, the movie has brought in less than 10 million on consecutive weekends domestically (it finished this weekend by pulling in another 8 million in the U.S. I believe). By next week, it'll probably bring in around 4 million, the week following maybe 2-3. So in its 4th - 6th week of release domestically it'll have earned somewhere around $15 million, which isn't bad, but not the $50 million I'm conjecturing it could make.
Also, I poked around a little more to find that Ant Man and the Wasp releases on August 24th in China. I think it'll do good numbers there, but I'm worried that over 100 films have hit or will hit their theaters from June - August. What I find a little relieving is that the box office intake tripled from 2016 - 2017, and I'm not sure how it's doing this summer, but Infinity War made an unprecedented $359 million in 3 weeks over there, and then secured an extended release. I don't know where its box office run ended there, but the most recent number I found was from 5/11, when the extension was announced. Will that translate to MCU fatigue, or will it help this movie's cause? It is a palette cleanser, but the general audience will most likely just see another superhero movie, in spite of the impression the first movie made. The Chinese audience seemed to enjoy the first Ant Man tho. I mean, the movie made bank there, so I'm going to predict that they'll at least match the 100 million from the first film.
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Post by mr. excellent on Aug 12, 2018 16:31:08 GMT -5
Forbes Take on Ant Man's Remaining Box Office www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2018/07/24/ant-man-and-the-wasp-will-top-600-million-box-office/#279c0b08908aSo apparently this article came out a couple weeks ago, but I only found it today. What's interesting, is that my prediction falls in with their analyst's low to mid range predictions for the same reasons. Of course, he has a lot more hands on details in his article and is an actual professional at doing this, but I'm quite proud of my findings. It bugged me that big publications (including Forbes at one point) were printing click bait articles about this film's box office knowing full well that many territories hadn't even released the film yet. Then again, this type of thing isn't new. They did the same thing with Spider-Man Homecoming, a film that went on to be the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man film to date. People still consider it a "slight disappointment" for not cracking a billion, but it turned out to be the highest grossing (world wide) superhero film of 2017, one of the strongest years for quality superhero films ever. So if those trumpeting the movie as a "slight disappointment" aren't convinced it was a success, even with that knowledge, what can you do?
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Post by mr. excellent on Aug 26, 2018 17:35:50 GMT -5
www.comicbookmovie.com/ant-man/ant-man_and_the_wasp/ant-man-and-the-wasp-rockets-to-the-top-of-the-international-box-office-with-68-million-debut-in-china-a163147I know I'm beating a dead horse with these posts, but still, this doesn't get old for me. With the exception (acception?) of Forbes, I think most of the box office analysts who did articles about Ant Man and the Wasp's poor performance knew exactly how this was going to play out, and just reported lazily on it. Puff it up now, and then spin it another way later to make it seem dramatic. At this point in time, who knows if Ant Man will get a sequel. A final box office total in the $600 million realm is definitely reason enough. At more than triple the film's estimated budget, even if the film cost $200 million to make with marketing, it's still a big success. I'll tell you what though, with James Gunn out of the picture, and Guardians 3 on indefinite hiatus, a whacked out, insane adventure into the quantum realm would be a freakin bananas replacement! I'd love to see Benedict Cumberbatch mix it up with them there too. Or Hulk with the intelligence of Bruce Banner fighting "giant sized" behemoth's in the quantum realm (if that's where the character goes after Avengers 4, assuming he's still going to be used). Hell, Captain Marvel might even be the person to take with them there, and they could have her and Hope kicking ass together. The possibilities are endless. At this point, Ant Man and the Wasp still doesn't excite people on the level of a Spider-Man or Captain America, or the new and improved Thor, but Marvel knows how to redefine an established franchise. They've done it three times now with those aforementioned characters (Thor, Captain America, and Spider-Man). If anyone can get the audience to gain a new found excitement over a familliar product, it's them.
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Post by brotherandbassist on Sept 23, 2018 20:26:27 GMT -5
My Ant-Man and the Wasp pre-order on Vudu activates October 4th! Can't wait!
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Post by mr. excellent on Aug 24, 2019 15:18:36 GMT -5
I was reminded of my crazy soiree into box office analysis recently by reading all of these Spider-man, Sony vs. Disney articles. In skimming thru, I just reread the idea I had about the 3rd Antman film being set in the Quantum realm with either Dr. Strange or the Hulk. Since Dr. Strange is going to be involved in all manner of weirdness (super hyped), I think the Hulk route is still an awesome way they could go. Hell, at this point they could do Fantastic Four and the Thing could fulfill that role. What say you gents?
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